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Every Monday I publish a full stock portfolio I run with my own money, every position with its exact weight and stop. The complete record is public on Dub
This week’s summary
Stance, defensive
Positions, 1
Added, 1
Removed, 10
Cash, 0.0%
The setup this week
I’m moving the whole portfolio out of stocks this week and into commodities. The system has turned defensive again, one Monday after going fully invested, and this is the first week it responds to that setting differently. Until now a defensive week meant holding 70% in cash with a small, evenly spread list of stocks beside it. I ran the alternative through backtesting before switching it on, and in those tests holding commodities through the defensive stretches did better than sitting mostly in cash, so from today that’s where the money goes.
The trigger hasn’t changed. Last week’s call came down to a reading sitting right on its line, and the trend it measures has weakened since, so this week it wasn’t close. The index is still above both its 50-day and 200-day averages, but fewer than half of all stocks trade above their own long-term trend, and the running count of stocks rising versus falling keeps drifting lower.
Over the past month the market paid for momentum and growth and marked value down, and none of that reaches this week’s portfolio, since it holds no stocks at all.
Below the line, paid subscribers get the full list, every position with its weight and stop.
