The portfolio spent this week without a stock in it. The system turned defensive again on Monday, and I’d changed what it does with the money when that happens.
The scorecard
The trend:
By period:
Everything in the scorecard above is live, real money I have traded publicly since January 12, 2026. Before a dollar went in, the system was tested on six years of market data. Every trade since has been public, so you can check the whole record before you trust a word of it.
Verify every trade on Dub: here
Learn more about the system: here
Read the backtest details: here
What happened this week
The portfolio finished the week at -0.2%, against the market’s +0.2%, and that number leaves out the worst of it. Dub counts a week from Monday’s open, and the ten stocks I’d held over the weekend opened nearly two percent below Friday’s close. That drop sits in the record and in the bottom row of the scorecard, outside the week’s number.
I knew before the open that the stocks were going. Last week’s call to go fully invested was a close one, and by Monday the trend it reads had weakened enough that this one wasn’t. What was new was where the money went. A defensive week used to mean mostly cash, and from this week it means one commodities fund, a change I tested before switching it on.
The fund’s first week moved around more than cash would have. The portfolio was -2.0% by Tuesday’s close and had climbed back above its starting point by Thursday, before Friday left it a little under, while the market drifted lower into Wednesday and recovered. I left it alone, and with one holding there’s no picking or weighting to account for, so the fund’s week is the portfolio’s week.
I checked what the old defensive setup would’ve done with this week, holding seventy percent in cash and splitting the rest across twenty-six stocks. Half of those rose, and the whole thing comes out at roughly +0.3%, with barely a dip on the way. So the change cost me about half a percent in its first live week, and a wider swing. I don’t read much into that. In testing, commodities did better than cash across the defensive stretches as a whole, and one week in either direction doesn’t add much to that.
The record on Dub reads $62,079, close to nine months after it started at $30,000. That’s -$101 for the week as Dub counts it and $1,230 under last Saturday’s figure, and the difference is Monday’s open.
Next Monday
Monday’s question is whether the money goes back into stocks. I run the scoring over about two thousand US stocks again, and the same reading that sent the portfolio into commodities decides whether it comes back with a full list or holds the fund another week. It looks again every Monday, whether the stretch before was strong or poor.
Whatever it decides goes to paid subscribers before the open, each position with its weight and its stop, and I place the same list with my own money that morning. Monday’s list is the thing to act on.
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