live track record on Dub · more about Lionshare · 6-year backtest· FAQs
Every Monday I publish a full stock portfolio I run with my own money, every position with its exact weight and stop. The complete record is public on Dub.
This week’s summary
Stance, defensive
Positions, 1
Added, 0
Removed, 0
Cash, 0.0%
The setup this week
The portfolio stays in commodities for a second week. I ran the scoring again on Friday’s close, and the reading that took the money out of stocks last Monday hasn’t recovered, so there’s nothing to buy back yet and nothing to trade today.
You wouldn’t see the reason from the index, which is holding above both its 50-day and 200-day averages, though it has gone roughly nowhere in a month. Stocks as a whole are in worse shape. A little over half of them are trading below their own long-term trend, and the ones falling keep outnumbering the ones rising. The system reads those stocks as well as the index, and while they stay this weak it keeps the money out of them. I’m comfortable with that, since in testing a commodities fund did better than cash across stretches like this one.
Among stocks, momentum has led for a month now with growth not far behind and value trailing. With no stock in the portfolio there’s nothing for that to help or hurt. I run the same check next Monday.
Below the line, paid subscribers get the full list, every position with its weight and stop.
