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The summary

• Approach, out of stocks

• Positions, 1

• Added, 0

• Removed, 0

• Cash, 0.0%

The setup

The list is one fund outside of the stock market for the fourth Monday in a row. The market conditions are against stocks so we stay out. Nothing goes in or out this morning. The only thing I do is move the stop. Stocks were down last week but my portfolio was still up for the week. As I wrote on Friday, small gains compound over time.

In the table below is everything my money goes into at the open this morning, with its weight and stop.

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New here? The exact positions I hold arrive in your inbox every Monday before the market opens, and take 30 minutes to follow. Start here, or see a full sample list.

What happened this week

This week came down to Friday. For four days the portfolio went up a little and back again. Then, on a day the stock market fell, it made the whole week's gain.

Monday was the third in a row with the portfolio in one fund outside the stock market. Conditions still read as against stocks, so the list was the same as the week before, and there was nothing to buy or sell.

The fund gained on Monday and Tuesday while the market slipped, then gave it back over Wednesday and Thursday, and closed on Thursday at exactly the price it opened at on Monday. On Friday the market fell more than a percent and the fund rose, so the week closed at +1.4% against the market's -2.0%. Nothing was traded in between, because the list only changes on a Monday.

In a week like this the fund is the whole answer, and its price doesn't follow stocks. Friday was the clearest case: the two went opposite ways, and that one day made up most of the gap between the portfolio and the market. The first four days made up the rest, with the fund back at level while the market drifted lower.

I'm happy with this one. The portfolio is ahead of the market again over the day, the week, the month and since January, and last Saturday the month was the one where it trailed. It was a small gain, and small gains can compound over time.

Three weeks into this stretch in the fund, two have finished ahead of the market and one a little behind it.

How did your own portfolio do this week? Tell me in the comments.

The record

On Dub the record reads $64,216, from the $30,000 I put in on January 12, and the week added $893 from Monday's open. It's my own money, and you can check every trade on Dub.

Next Monday

The system reads the market again every week, so Monday's list could hold the fund for a fourth week or bring back a full list of stocks. It goes out at about 7:30am New York time, two hours before the open: every position I hold, its weight and its stop. It takes about 30 minutes to follow.

Get Monday's list

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live track record on Dub · more about Lionshare · 6-year backtest· FAQs

Every Monday I publish a full stock portfolio I run with my own money, every position with its exact weight and stop. The complete record is public on Dub.

This week’s summary

• Stance, out of stocks

• Positions, 1

• Added, 0

• Removed, 0

• Cash, 0.0%

The setup this week

Stocks had a good week, and the portfolio is staying out of them anyway. The check I run on Friday's close still reads conditions as against stocks, although conditions are showing slight improvements, so everything remains in the one commodities fund for a third Monday and there's nothing to buy or sell today.

One good week wasn't enough to change the answer, and I think that's right, since a single week doesn't tell me much.

Growth has led the market over the last four weeks and value has trailed it, though with no stocks in the portfolio neither one moves it.

The week the check clears, I'll say so at the top of this post and the table will be a full list of stocks again. Until then there's nothing to watch between Mondays.

Below the line, paid subscribers get the full list, every position with its weight and stop.

Read more

Nothing changed in the portfolio this week. It went in holding one commodities fund with no stocks beside it and came out the same way, so most of what follows is about what that fund did and what I make of sitting in it.

The scorecard

The trend:

By period:

Everything in the scorecard is my own money, live since January 12, 2026, tracked by Dub, a third-party platform anyone can open. On Dub the strategy runs the hard way, without stop losses or exact timing on the Monday open, with fees on top, and I treat it as the source of truth anyway, because it's a record I can't touch.

Verify every trade on Dub
Learn more about the system
Read the backtest details

What happened this week

The check I ran before Monday's open came back the same as the week before, with conditions still against stocks, so the whole portfolio stayed in one commodities fund. I didn't have a view on how the week would go. The fund isn't cash, and in testing it finished lower in about four of every ten weeks it was held, so I was ready for either result.

This wasn't one of those weeks. The fund slipped about half a percent on Monday while the market rose, was back above its starting point by Tuesday, and made most of its gain on Thursday, a day when stocks fell, before closing at +1.6%, against the market's +1.0%. There was nothing for me to do in between, and I did nothing.

The whole result is the fund, which moves on commodity prices, and this week those went their own way, which is why Monday and Thursday both ran opposite to the market.

I finished ahead of the market in a week I held no stocks, and I don't take credit for it. The system left stocks because conditions were against them, and a fixed rule picks the fund it holds in the meantime, so nothing in that was a forecast of a good week for commodities, and I didn't have one either. I'd have been just as comfortable with the decision if the fund had lost a percent. In testing there were plenty of weeks when the stocks it had stepped out of beat the fund, and I expect to be writing about one of those at some point.

It was also the portfolio's best week since the middle of August, after six in a row that closed within about a percent of flat. Over the month, the market is still ahead of me.

The record on Dub turns nine months old on Monday. It reads $62,781 from the $30,000 it started with, +$989 for the week, counted from Monday's open.

Next Monday

I don't know how long the portfolio stays in the fund. In testing, stretches like this ran anywhere from one week to eight, and with no minimum stay the stocks come back on the first Monday conditions allow. The scoring runs every week either way, after strong stretches and weak ones, so a ranked list of stocks is always ready behind the fund.

Paid subscribers get Monday's portfolio before the open, the fund again or a full list of stocks, every position with its weight and its stop, and it's the same one I place with my own money that morning. That's the part to act on. Everything above stays free, along with the record on Dub.

If Lionshare is useful to you, a like or a restack makes a big difference to me.

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live track record on Dub · more about Lionshare · 6-year backtest· FAQs

Every Monday I publish a full stock portfolio I run with my own money, every position with its exact weight and stop. The complete record is public on Dub.

This week’s summary

• Stance, defensive

• Positions, 1

• Added, 0

• Removed, 0

• Cash, 0.0%

The setup this week

The portfolio stays in commodities for a second week. I ran the scoring again on Friday’s close, and the reading that took the money out of stocks last Monday hasn’t recovered, so there’s nothing to buy back yet and nothing to trade today.

You wouldn’t see the reason from the index, which is holding above both its 50-day and 200-day averages, though it has gone roughly nowhere in a month. Stocks as a whole are in worse shape. A little over half of them are trading below their own long-term trend, and the ones falling keep outnumbering the ones rising. The system reads those stocks as well as the index, and while they stay this weak it keeps the money out of them. I’m comfortable with that, since in testing a commodities fund did better than cash across stretches like this one.

Among stocks, momentum has led for a month now with growth not far behind and value trailing. With no stock in the portfolio there’s nothing for that to help or hurt. I run the same check next Monday.

Below the line, paid subscribers get the full list, every position with its weight and stop.

Read more

The portfolio spent this week without a stock in it. The system turned defensive again on Monday, and I’d changed what it does with the money when that happens.

The scorecard

The trend:

By period:

Everything in the scorecard above is live, real money I have traded publicly since January 12, 2026. Before a dollar went in, the system was tested on six years of market data. Every trade since has been public, so you can check the whole record before you trust a word of it.

Verify every trade on Dub: here
Learn more about the system: here
Read the backtest details: here

What happened this week

The portfolio finished the week at -0.2%, against the market’s +0.2%, and that number leaves out the worst of it. Dub counts a week from Monday’s open, and the ten stocks I’d held over the weekend opened nearly two percent below Friday’s close. That drop sits in the record and in the bottom row of the scorecard, outside the week’s number.

I knew before the open that the stocks were going. Last week’s call to go fully invested was a close one, and by Monday the trend it reads had weakened enough that this one wasn’t. What was new was where the money went. A defensive week used to mean mostly cash, and from this week it means one commodities fund, a change I tested before switching it on.

The fund’s first week moved around more than cash would have. The portfolio was -2.0% by Tuesday’s close and had climbed back above its starting point by Thursday, before Friday left it a little under, while the market drifted lower into Wednesday and recovered. I left it alone, and with one holding there’s no picking or weighting to account for, so the fund’s week is the portfolio’s week.

I checked what the old defensive setup would’ve done with this week, holding seventy percent in cash and splitting the rest across twenty-six stocks. Half of those rose, and the whole thing comes out at roughly +0.3%, with barely a dip on the way. So the change cost me about half a percent in its first live week, and a wider swing. I don’t read much into that. In testing, commodities did better than cash across the defensive stretches as a whole, and one week in either direction doesn’t add much to that.

The record on Dub reads $62,079, close to nine months after it started at $30,000. That’s -$101 for the week as Dub counts it and $1,230 under last Saturday’s figure, and the difference is Monday’s open.

Next Monday

Monday’s question is whether the money goes back into stocks. I run the scoring over about two thousand US stocks again, and the same reading that sent the portfolio into commodities decides whether it comes back with a full list or holds the fund another week. It looks again every Monday, whether the stretch before was strong or poor.

Whatever it decides goes to paid subscribers before the open, each position with its weight and its stop, and I place the same list with my own money that morning. Monday’s list is the thing to act on.

Found this useful? Like it, restack it, and send it to one person who’d want it too. It’s how this reaches the next reader, and it makes a real difference to me.

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live track record on Dub · more about Lionshare · 6-year backtest· FAQs

Every Monday I publish a full stock portfolio I run with my own money, every position with its exact weight and stop. The complete record is public on Dub.

This week’s summary

• Stance, defensive

• Positions, 1

• Added, 1

• Removed, 10

• Cash, 0.0%

The setup this week

I’m moving the whole portfolio out of stocks this week and into commodities. The system has turned defensive again, one Monday after going fully invested, and this is the first week it responds to that setting differently. Until now a defensive week meant holding 70% in cash with a small, evenly spread list of stocks beside it. I ran the alternative through backtesting before switching it on, and in those tests holding commodities through the defensive stretches did better than sitting mostly in cash, so from today that’s where the money goes.

The trigger hasn’t changed. Last week’s call came down to a reading sitting right on its line, and the trend it measures has weakened since, so this week it wasn’t close. The index is still above both its 50-day and 200-day averages, but fewer than half of all stocks trade above their own long-term trend, and the running count of stocks rising versus falling keeps drifting lower.

Over the past month the market paid for momentum and growth and marked value down, and none of that reaches this week’s portfolio, since it holds no stocks at all.

Below the line, paid subscribers get the full list, every position with its weight and stop.

The portfolio

 #  Symbol  Weight   Stop $
──  ──────  ──────  ───────
 1  PDBC     100.0%     27.7
    Cash      0.0%
    Total   100.0%

What changed from last week:

All ten stocks from last week are sold in full, SNDK and DELL included, and the whole portfolio goes into PDBC, a fund that tracks a basket of commodity futures.

• Removed, SNDK, DELL, MU, INTC, TER, WDC, AFRM, FIX, FTNT, SCCO

• Added, PDBC

A note on the shape of the list. The system holds a single position this week, and it carries the whole portfolio. When the market turns against stocks, the system now steps out of them entirely instead of keeping a short list, and it comes back to stocks once conditions improve.

How I place the week

The full order I work in, cancel, sell, trim, add, then set the stops, is written up once here, How I update the portfolio every Monday.

Two things to keep in front of you while you place it. The weights are percent of portfolio, so a position is account value times its weight, placed as a notional market order. The stop is the dollar price in the table, good till canceled, already carrying this week’s trailing, and it holds there until next Monday.

Disclaimer

Lionshare is a publication, not financial advice. I share what the system is doing with my own money. What you do with yours is up to you.

I hold positions in the securities mentioned and may trade before or after publication. My positions may change without updating prior posts. No one has paid me to mention any security.

Past performance does not guarantee future returns.

If Lionshare is useful to you, a like or a restack makes a big difference to me.

Refer a friend

Every week I close the loop on the recent performance. Wins and losses get reported the same way. The live record on Dub is the source of truth.

The scorecard

The trend:

By period:

Everything in the scorecard above is live, real money I have traded publicly since January 12, 2026. Before a dollar went in, the system was tested on six years of market data. Every trade since has been public, so you can check the whole record before you trust a word of it.

Verify every trade on Dub: here
Learn more about the system: here
Read the backtest details: here

What happened this week

This was the first week since August with all of the money invested, and I went into it expecting a bumpier ride. The system barely flipped on Monday, with the reading it decides on sitting right on its line after three weeks in cash, and when a call is that close, the conditions that kept it careful haven’t fully gone away.

It was bumpier. The portfolio was +1.7% by Tuesday’s close, gave nearly all of it back on Wednesday, and dropped to -1.3% on Thursday while the market barely moved, before Friday’s recovery netted the week out at +0.3%, against the market’s +0.5%.

The picking went well. Eight of the ten names finished higher, the best by around four percent, and only two fell, so what held the week back was the weighting, with the two largest positions coming eighth and tenth of the ten. The weighting leans hardest into the names the system rates highest, and in most weeks that makes the result bigger in whichever direction the week goes, which this time meant pulling against a good set of picks. At the end of August it did the opposite, turning names that lost a little on average into a week that finished ahead.

I’m comfortable with four weeks in a row closing within a percent of flat, in a market that’s gone sideways for a month. Three of them were mostly in cash while conditions stayed unclear, and being patient until they improve is part of the process, because trading a flat market for the sake of doing something would add risk for no reason.

Eight and a half months in, the record on Dub stands at $63,309 from the $30,000 it started with, +$222 for the week.

Next Monday

Monday is the next read. The system scores around two thousand US stocks again, and whether it stays fully invested after a call this close, and which names it leans into, depends on where the market has gone since. It adjusts every week, through the good stretches and the rough ones, so the list keeps moving with the market.

Paid subscribers get the list before the open, every position with its weight and its stop, the same list I place in my own account that morning. That list is what you act on. Everything above stays free, with every trade behind it on Dub..

Found this useful? Like it, restack it, and send it to one person who’d want it too. It’s how this reaches the next reader, and it makes a real difference to me.

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live track record on Dub · more about Lionshare · 6-year backtest· FAQs

Every Monday I publish a full stock portfolio I run with my own money, every position with its exact weight and stop. The complete record is public on Dub.

This week’s summary

• Stance, fully invested

• Positions, 10

• Added, 0

• Removed, 16

• Cash, 0.0%

The setup this week

I’m fully invested this week, after three Mondays in a row with 70% of the portfolio held in cash. The system’s regime-adaptive reading has been slowly moving toward risk-on for weeks and now sits at the change level, so the call came down to a very thin margin. With the trend improving slowly the whole way up, this was the week it tipped over.

The index sits above both its 50-day and 200-day averages, and a little over half of all stocks trade above their own long-term trend. Day to day, more stocks are still falling than rising. I’m watching that closely to see how market conditions are affected.

What changed is the position count and concentration. Last week it spread 30% across twenty-six names at the same weight each, and this week the whole portfolio goes into ten of them.

Below the line, paid subscribers get the full list, every position with its weight and stop.

Read more

The free weekly closing update sent every Saturday morning, the week closed and settled, up or down, written the same way either way.

The scorecard

The trend:

By period:

Everything in the scorecard above is live, real money I have traded publicly since January 12, 2026. Before a dollar went in, the system was tested on six years of market data. Every trade since has been public, so you can check the whole record before you trust a word of it.

Verify every trade on Dub: here
Learn more about the system: here
Read the backtest details: here

What happened this week

The week closed with the portfolio at +0.7% and the broad market at +0.4%.

That’s the third week running with seventy percent of the money sitting in cash, because Monday’s scoring read conditions the same way it had the two weeks before, so the stock side stayed small and spread across twenty-six names carrying the same weight each.

The stock side had a good week. Fourteen of the twenty-six rose and twelve fell, the strongest of them at +17.8%, with +13.3% and +12.1% behind it and four more between +5.5% and +7.0%. The steepest losses were -5.9%, -4.6% and -4.4%. Average the twenty-six moves and you get +2.2%, which looks nothing like what the scorecard shows for the week, and the gap is the cash. Thirty percent of the portfolio was in stocks, so roughly a third of that is what the portfolio collected. Last week the cash kept a falling market out. This week it kept a rising stock side out, and it works the same way in both directions, so I don’t get to choose which weeks it lands on.

The market was down -0.7% by Wednesday before taking all of it back and more over Thursday and Friday, and the portfolio spent those first three days close to where it started, so almost the whole week arrived in the last two sessions, and so did most of the move in the three biggest gainers.

The record on Dub stands at $62,934, from the $30,000 it started with, +$462 for the week, eight months and a week since it went live.

Next Monday

Everything above is free, and every trade behind it is public on Dub. On Monday the system scores around two thousand US stocks again and sets the portfolio for the week.

Paid subscribers get the full list before the market opens, every position with its exact weight and its stop, the same one I place with my own money that morning.

That list is the part you act on.

Found this useful? Like it, restack it, and send it to one person who’d want it too. It’s how this reaches the next reader, and it makes a real difference to me.

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live track record on Dub · more about Lionshare · 6-year backtest· FAQs

Every Monday I publish a full stock portfolio I run with my own money, every position with its exact weight and stop. The complete record is public on Dub

This week’s summary

• Stance, defensive

• Positions, 26

• Added, 7

• Removed, 6

• Cash, 70.0%

The setup this week

The portfolio holds 70% in cash for a third week. The market has drifted sideways since late August with a thin group of names leading, and that is what puts the system into its defensive setting. Friday’s close gave it no reason to come out.

Across the six years of backtesting, the system sat out about six weeks in a typical year, and those weeks tended to arrive in runs. Three in a row is ordinary behaviour for it so I am running the rules as published.

The index is still holding over its 50-day and 200-day averages, and just over half of all stocks trade above their own long-term trend. The system is watching whether more stocks go up than down on a given day, and more of them are going down.

The scoring itself did not shift meaningfully this week. The stock side still turned over, because cash is fixed and every name carries the same weight, so the changes land as names on and off the list and a fresh set of stops.

Below the line, paid subscribers get the full list, every position with its weight and stop.

Read more

Every week I close the loop on the recent performance. Wins and losses get reported the same way. The live record on Dub is the source of truth.

The scorecard

The trend:

By period:

Everything in the scorecard above is live, real money I have traded publicly since January 12, 2026. Before a dollar went in, the system was tested on six years of market data. Every trade since has been public, so you can check the whole record before you trust a word of it.

Verify every trade on Dub: here
Learn more about the system: here
Read the backtest details: here

What happened this week

The broad market finished this week at -0.8%, and the portfolio finished it at -0.1%.

This is the second week with most of the money in cash. Monday was Labor Day, so the trades went in on Tuesday. The system still read the market as hostile to the strategy, so it stayed defensive to protect the cash, which let the portfolio hold flat while the market fell nearly 1%.

In the holdings, 8 of the 25 positions rose while 17 fell, the strongest gaining +18.7% with the next three at +4.0%, +3.2% and +3.0%, while the steepest losers went -6.8% and -6.5% with three more between -5.0% and -5.9%. I averaged the twenty-five moves and got about -0.4%, which sounds worse than the week turned out, and the difference is the cash. Stocks were 30% of the portfolio, so 30% of -0.4% lands about where the scorecard has the week.

The market ran -1.0% by Wednesday and -1.6% by Thursday, then got half of it back on Friday, and the portfolio’s low point was -0.4% on Thursday. I don’t touch it between Mondays, so Friday’s recovery didn’t force a trade, and over the two weeks the cash has been on, the portfolio is +0.8% while the market has gone slightly backwards.

The record on Dub now stands at $62,668 from the $30,000 it started with, -$61 for the week, eight months in.

Next Monday

On Monday morning the system reviews over two thousand US stocks. It checks market conditions and chooses between being fully invested in a few large positions or going defensive with many small ones and holding cash, as it has for the last two weeks.

The choice depends on what the market did recently. That’s why I set it to check every week instead of making one decision. It adapts to the market, whether it’s strong or weak.

Paid subscribers get the results before the market opens along with full details and stop prices. I copy the same list into my account that morning, which takes about half an hour.

If Lionshare is useful to you, a like or a restack makes a big difference to me.

Subscribe now

live track record on Dub · more about Lionshare · 6-year backtest· FAQs

Every Monday I publish a full stock portfolio I run with my own money, every position with its exact weight and stop. The complete record is public on Dub so you can check it before you trust it.

This week’s summary

• Stance, defensive

• Positions, 25

• Added, 1

• Removed, 1

• Cash, 70.0%

The setup this week

The portfolio stays defensive this week, with 70% in cash and the rest spread evenly across 25 stocks. Rather hold cash through a market that hasn’t picked a direction than try to guess it, and although we saw Friday last week with a strong growth the system saw no reason to change yet out of defensive. With Monday a holiday, the trades go in at Tuesday’s open.

The index finished above its 50-day and 200-day averages, and roughly three stocks in five are trading above their own long-term trend, but what the system watches is the daily count of stocks closing higher against those closing lower, and that count has slipped further and sits below its trend. Until more names rise than fall on a typical day the system remains defensive to preserve capital and reduce risk.

In the scoring, the past month has the system giving growth a little more weight and momentum a little less, with the rest of it close to where it was. Cash is fixed and every stock sits at the same weight, so that shows up as one name swapped for another and a fresh set of stops.

Below the line, paid subscribers get the full list, every position with its weight and stop.

Read more

Every week I close the loop on the recent performance. Wins and losses get reported the same way. The live record on Dub is the source of truth.

The scorecard

The trend:

By period:

Everything in the scorecard above is live, real money I have traded publicly since January 12, 2026. Before a dollar went in, the system was tested on six years of market data. Every trade since has been public, so you can check the whole record before you trust a word of it.

Verify every trade on Dub: here
Learn more about the system: here
Read the backtest details: here

What happened this week

The portfolio came out of the week at +0.9%, with the broad market at +0.3%.

Most of the money sat in cash the whole week. On Monday the scoring read conditions as too risky to be fully invested, so it stepped back instead of guessing, and what it bought with that is the week you see. Eleven of the twenty-five names fell and fourteen rose, the best of them gaining +14.0%, with +9.2% and +6.3% behind it and six more landing somewhere between +2.3% and +3.9%. On the losing side the two steepest went -8.4% and -8.2%.

Day by day it ran steadier than the market did, which was down -0.9% by Tuesday and then recovered all of it back by Thursday. The portfolio stayed consistent and prtected capital going +0.3%, then +0.9%, then holding there into Friday, and that’s what a small stock side spread thinly across a lot of names does, no single one of them could push the total far in either direction. Preserving the capital is a result too, and I’m happy with this one.

The account now stands at $62,659 from the $30,000 it started with on January, +$556 for the week.

Next Tuesday

Monday is Labor Day and the market is closed, so this week the system runs on Tuesday instead, the same way it runs every other week. Around two thousand US stocks go through the scoring along with the market conditions, which is how the portfolio can sit in a full set of holdings one month and mostly in cash the next.

That’s the same procedure in a strong stretch as in a bad one, which is the reason I built it to re-read the market every week and adapt to the changes it sees.

Paid subscribers get the full list before the market opens, every position with its exact weight and its stop, the same one I place with my own money that morning.

That list is what you act on. Everything above it is free, and every trade it produced is already sitting on Dub with a date on it.

If Lionshare is useful to you, a like or a restack makes a big difference to me.

Subscribe now

On July 17 the account was worth $53,530. Five weeks earlier it had been $76,751.

That is a drop of -30.3%, the worst this record has had, and most of it arrived inside one week when the portfolio gave up -21.2%. The Monday after, I ran the process exactly the way I run it every Monday, which at that point felt like doing nothing at all.

August closed at +8.9% against the market’s +2.6% and the account finished at $61,918. This is how that happened, and what I found during the month’s review.

The scorecard

                              Lionshare     VTI      Spread
                              ─────────    ──────   ───────
August                            +8.9%     +2.6%     +6.3%
Live, since January 12          +106.4%    +11.2%    +95.2%

Months ahead of the market       7 of 8
Worst drop since going live      -30.3%     -8.6%
Below the June high              -19.3%
Account, from $30,000           $61,918

Every number here comes from Dub, a third-party platform that tracks the portfolio live and open for anyone to see. On Dub the strategy runs the hard way, without stop losses, without exact timing on the Monday open, and with fees on top. I treat it as the source of truth anyway, because a record kept by someone else, one I can’t touch, is the most useful thing I can hand you. It’s all there, down to the detail you’d need to rebuild every figure above.

The Monday at the bottom

On July 13 the portfolio held 30% of the account in one memory stock, 25.8% in a second and 16.5% in a third. That is the shape the scoring produces when conviction is high, and through the spring it had been right. Then the week to July 19 took -21.2% out.

Normally after a large drop someone would have done something dramatically different that Monday, but the system didn’t change.

It kept the names it still rated, switched the conviction weighting off, and spread the money across twenty-five positions at 4.0% each, still fully invested but with the concentration gone. A week later, with the market no better, it stepped down again and moved 70% of the account into cash, leaving twenty-five names at 1.2%.

Two step-downs in two weeks, neither of them a decision I made. Nothing about those Mondays repaired the hole, and on July 17 it was still -30.3% deep. What they did was make the portfolio small while conditions weren’t optimal, and leave it able to get large again when the reading changed.

What August was made of

On August 3 the reading changed, and the account went back into ten concentrated positions. It did three things that morning, not one.

1. It put the cash back to work.

2. It swapped almost the whole list for different names.

3. It sized those names steeply, 30% in the top one down to under 1% in the smallest.

Any of the three could have made the month, so I decomposed August into four analysis to better understand the returns. The first analysis is if nothing changed and just holds July’s defensive list all month. Then I add the three decisions back, one at a time to show what that one was worth to the results.

                                        Return   Incremental value
Change nothing, hold July's list         +1.0%
  put the cash back to work              +3.4%       +2.4
  swap in the new names                  +7.4%       +4.0
  size them 30% down to 1%               +8.3%       +0.8

Swapping the names was worth 4.0 points, more than the other two decisions put together. Putting the cash back to work mattered, but only as permission for the rest, because the names I had been holding would have returned about 3.4% fully invested and the market did 2.6% anyway.

What produced August was the system selecting and rotation into memory, storage and the machines that test chips.

The engine runs in both directions

So the month came out of a concentrated bet on one corner of the market, which makes concentration a valuable part of the system. Two positions show what that looks like from the inside.

ALAB was held for exactly one week, returned +13.5% at a 30% weight, contributed more to the month than any other name, and was gone by August 10. WDC sat in the top 30% slot for three of the four weeks and finished the month contributing -0.36%. Across those weeks it went -17.1%, then +20.9%, then -15.1%, then +2.4%.

The same weight ladder that made ALAB the month’s biggest contributor made WDC a round trip. Run August again with the same ten names each week at ten percent each and it comes out at +7.43% rather than +8.25%, so across the whole month the steep sizing added 0.8 points. Inside the month it added six points in one week and cost five in the next.

That 0.8 says more about August than about the sizing. Putting 30% into one name pays when the move keeps going, and August never really trended as a market. The market made its whole month in the first two sessions, +3.3% by the close on August 4, then spent the next nineteen sessions going nowhere, finishing 0.7% below its August 4 level. Fourteen of the twenty-one days moved less than half a percent, and after August 4 the entire index traded inside a two-point range. Steep sizing in a market like that gets you churn at the top of the ladder rather than a run, which is roughly what happened to WDC.

And the corner of the market it rotated into on August 3 is the corner it was sitting in on July 13, when the same conviction ran the other way. Same mechanism, same size, opposite result five weeks apart.

That is the design working in both directions, and it is why the good months are the size they are.

So is it just a wilder portfolio?

That is a fair question, and it needs arithmetic to assess.

The objection runs like this. A portfolio that swings 4.5 times as wide as the market will beat it in an up month without anything clever happening, so +8.9% against +2.6% proves very little on its own. Fair enough, and there is a clean test for it. Take the whole US market, run it at exactly the volatility this portfolio ran at, 60.7% a year against the market’s 13.4%, and see what it delivers over the same days.

                                      Live, since January 12
The market itself                            +11.2%
The same market at 60.7% volatility          +47.7%
Lionshare, at 60.7% volatility              +106.4%

Matched for risk, the index gets you +47.7% against the +106.4% the account made with a -30.3% drop inside it. The 59 points between those two are what the weekly scoring is for, and no amount of extra size would have produced them.

There is a second form of the same test that I like.

Sharpe measures the return you got against how much the portfolio moved around to get it, and Sortino does the same while counting the downward moves alone.

Neither can be improved by taking more size, because more size multiplies the return and the movement in the same proportion and the ratio between them does not change.

                    Lionshare     VTI
                    ─────────   ─────
Sharpe                    2.2     1.3
Sortino                   3.2     2.0

Both metrics are well over one and a half times the market’s.

One month is far too few days to calculate a ratio like that from, so both run across the whole live record, which is 160 trading days and still a short run.

Where it leaves things

August carried the account from $53,530 at the July low to $61,918, a climb of +15.7% that still leaves it 19.3% under the June high, so the hole is not closed yet.

This Monday the system moved back to 70% cash across twenty-five equal-weighted names, out of memory and semiconductors and into energy, insurance, packaging and food. Nothing about the process changed, only what it found. The same two step-downs it ran in July, for the same reason, and I have no idea yet whether that will look early or late.

I run around two thousand US stocks through the scoring from a blank sheet every week, so nothing carries over because I liked it last week, and placing the result takes half an hour on a Monday morning. Paid subscribers get that list before the open, every position with its weight and its stop, and the same list is what goes into my own account when the market opens.

Eight months ago this was a strategy I believed in. It is now one that has been through a -30.3% drop and come out the other side without me overriding it.

With $30,000 at $61,918 in Lionshare against $33,350 for the same money in the broad market. That is a different thing to own, and the whole of it is dated and public.

See it for yourself

The weekend update lands free every Saturday, up week or down week, written the same way either way.

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Take the lion’s share.

live track record on Dub · more about Lionshare · 6-year backtest· FAQs

Every Monday I publish a full stock portfolio I run with my own money, every position with its exact weight and stop. The complete record is public on Dub so you can check it before you trust it.

This week’s summary

• Stance · defensive

• Positions · 25

• Added · 16

• Removed · 1

• Cash · 70%

The setup this week

I’m holding most of the portfolio in cash this week. The system moves to cash when the market turns choppy and the gains narrow to a handful of names, and that is what it read at Friday’s close.

The long view is intact. The index finished the week above its 50-day average and above its 200-day average, and roughly five stocks in eight are still sitting above their own long-term trend, which is the sort of picture that would normally keep me fully invested. What turned is the running count of stocks rising versus falling, which has been fading for weeks and has now dropped below its trend. Fewer names join in each day, and the system waits that out rather than guessing which way it resolves.

Under the surface the scoring has spent the past month tilting toward quality while momentum keeps losing ground, and the rest of it has barely moved, which on its own would have made for a quiet Monday of small resizes rather than a list this different. That, together with the decision to sit on cash, rewrote most of the list. Nothing about the process changed this week, only what it found.

Below the line, paid subscribers get the full list, every position with its weight and stop.

Read more

Every week I close the loop on the recent performance. Wins and losses get reported the same way. The live record on Dub is the source of truth.

The scorecard

The trend:

By period:

Everything in the scorecard above is live, real money I have traded publicly since January 12, 2026. Before a dollar went in, the system was tested on six years of market data. Every trade since has been public, so you can check the whole record before you trust a word of it.

Verify every trade on Dub: here
Learn more about the system: here
Read the backtest details: here

What happened this week

The week ended at +1.2%, against the broad market at +0.4%.

Three of the ten positions finished higher and seven finished lower, which normally reads as a red week. It didn’t this time, because the three that rose were the ones holding most of the money, the strongest gaining +6.8%, another +4.1%, and the largest holding +2.9%. Of the seven that fell, the steepest went -6.8% and the next -4.1%, with the other five landing between -0.2% and -3.1%. Average the ten moves and you get about -0.4%, so the gap between that and +1.2% comes down to which names were carrying the weight. Last week the same arithmetic ran against me. By Thursday the week stood at +3.2%, then Friday came in at -1.8% and took most of that back, so what the scorecard shows as a quiet week ran noisier day to day.

The record on Dub now stands at $62,131 from the $30,000 it started with, +$749 for the week, seven and a half months in.

Next Monday

Everything above is free, and every trade behind it is public on Dub. On Monday the system scores around two thousand US stocks again and sets the portfolio for the week.

Paid subscribers get the full list before the market opens, every position with its exact weight and its stop, the same one I place with my own money that morning.

That list is the part you act on.

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more about Lionshare · 6-year backtest· FAQs · live track record on Dub

I opened this post to everyone in October 2026, so you can see a full Monday list. I shortened the notes on the market, and the list is as it went out.

Every Monday I publish a full stock portfolio I run with my own money, every position with its exact weight and stop. The complete record is public on Dub

This week’s summary

• Stance, fully invested

• Positions, 10

• Added, 3

• Removed, 3

• Cash, 0%

The setup this week

I’ve got nothing in cash again this week.

Three names came off the list and three came on, and of the seven that carried through most are sized differently than they were last week. Same process as every other Monday.

Below the line, paid subscribers get the full list, every position with its weight and stop.

The portfolio

What changed from last week:

CIEN arrives as the largest of the three new names, TER and DELL trade places in the top four, and three positions exit in full.

• Removed, EXPE, MPC, EOG

• Added, CIEN, STLD, ALB

A note on the shape of the list. The largest position carries the most of the week’s risk, and the smallest are deliberately light.

How I place the week

This is the order I work in on a Monday morning.

1. I cancel last week’s open orders · The standing stops included, so nothing triggers while I’m moving positions around.

2. I sell what came off · Everything on the Removed list, which turns it back into cash for the buys that follow.

3. I trim what’s getting smaller · Each carried name dropping to a lower weight, sold down to its new target. Sells before buys, so the cash is always there.

4. I top up and add · The carried names that grew, then the names on the Added list at their listed size.

5. I set the stops · One stop on each position at its listed dollar price, good till canceled.

Done. The portfolio is set for the week. A few points on execution.

• Timing · I set the portfolio Monday at the open. The system is built around that.

• Sizing · The weights are percent of the portfolio. I place notional market orders, so a position is simply account value times its weight, in dollars. No share math, and the strategy isn’t sensitive to a few cents on entry.

• Stops · One stop on each position at the dollar price in the table, good till canceled. I work that price out from each position’s high-water mark before I publish, so the week’s trailing is already in the number. It holds at that price through the week, then I reset it the next Monday.

The full list goes to paying readers every Monday before the market opens. It is $39 a month or $350 a year, and you can cancel in one click.

Subscribe now

Disclaimer

Lionshare is a publication, not financial advice. I share what the system is doing with my own money. What you do with yours is up to you.

I hold positions in the securities mentioned and may trade before or after publication. My positions may change without updating prior posts. No one has paid me to mention any security.

Past performance does not guarantee future returns.

Found this useful? Like it, restack it, and send it to one person who’d want it too. It’s how this reaches the next reader, and it makes a real difference to me.

Refer a friend

Every week I close the loop on the recent performance. Wins and losses get reported the same way. The live record on Dub is the source of truth.

The scorecard

The trend:

By period:

Everything in the scorecard above is live, real money I have traded publicly since January 12, 2026. Before a dollar went in, the system was tested on six years of market data. Every trade since has been public, so you can check the whole record before you trust a word of it.

Verify every trade on Dub: here
Learn more about the system: here
Read the backtest details: here

What happened this week

The portfolio finished the week at -8.4%, against the broad market at -1.4%.

Three of the ten positions finished higher, the strongest at +7.2% and another at +4.8%, while seven fell, four of those by more than -7% and the steepest at -12.6%. Average the ten moves and you land near -4%, about half of what the portfolio did, and the reason for the difference is the concentration spread. Tuesday and Wednesday did nearly all of the decline. Wednesday closed at the low for the week, and the last two days steadied.

Drawdowns like this one showed up across the six years of testing and the process stays the same through them. It’s my own money in the drop, so I feel the week the way any reader would, and Monday I run the same steps I run every week.

The record now stands at $62,904 from the $30,000 it started with, -$5,796 for the week, seven months in.

Next Monday

The scoring runs again Monday, the same way it ran through the good weeks.

Around two thousand US stocks go back through it, nothing stays because it was there last week, and the system moves toward whatever the market is paying for now.

A week like this one doesn’t change how that runs and neither did the two strong weeks before it.

I send the new list to paid subscribers before the open, every position with its exact weight and its stop, the same one I place with my own money that morning. That list is what you act on, and it takes about half an hour of Monday to put on.

Found this useful? Like it, restack it, and send it to one person who’d want it too. It’s how this reaches the next reader, and it makes a real difference to me.

Subscribe now

live track record on Dub · more about Lionshare · 6-year backtest· FAQs

Every Monday I publish a full stock portfolio I run with my own money, every position with its exact weight and stop. The complete record is public on Dub so you can check it before you trust it.

This week’s summary

• Stance · fully invested

• Positions · 10

• Added · 3

• Removed · 3

• Cash · 0%

The setup this week

I remain fully invested this week, with nothing in cash. Nearly seven stocks in ten are holding above their own long-term trend, and more of them are going up each day than down, with the gap between the two still widening. The index ended last week above its 50-day average and above its 200-day average, and I read the trend as intact on both the near view and the long one.

Over the past month the scoring has kept moving toward quality and taken weight off growth, while sentiment, value and momentum sat close to where they were. I read that this week as money moving between names more than any change in how much is invested. Three positions came off the list, three came on, and the seven that carried through aren’t all sized the way they were a week ago. The scoring runs the same way it did last Monday, and the weights below are what it settled on.

Below the line, paid subscribers get the full list, every position with its weight and stop.

Read more